CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-03-17T05:08:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-03-17T05:08ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45121/-1
CME Note: CME faintly seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2. The CME is not clearly visible in GOES CCOR-1 and is obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. The potential source is a filament eruption with brightening starting at 2026-03-17T02:41Z from AR 14392 (approximately S15E10). The eruption is also visible near the SE limb from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 304 starting at 2026-03-17T03:45Z. | Arrival information: Arrival signature primarily characterized by a series of sharp jumps in B_total with the first beginning at 2026-03-20T01:31Z and by an associated increase in solar wind speed. The first jump in B_total is from ~5 nT to ~8 nT with B_total subsequently reaching ~18.5 nT by 2026-03-20T10:09Z. Solar wind speed increases from ~330 km/s to ~450 km/s. The shock signature is also accompanied by an increase in temperature and an increase in density. There is a likely flux rope signature seen starting ~2026-03-20T13:22Z, with smooth rotation of magnetic field components. That flux rope signature is interrupted by a sudden B_total jump indicating the start of the next, separate Interplanetary Shock at 2026-03-20T20:17Z. This arrival signature is likely the combined arrival of four CMEs simulated together expected to give Missions Near Earth a glancing blow at 2026-03-20T06:00Z (+- 7 hours), including CME 2026-03-17T05:08Z, CME 2026-03-17T06:38Z, CME 2026-03-17T08:23Z, and CME 2026-03-17T10:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T01:31Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T07:36Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.2 - 5.2
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 11.58 hour(s)
Difference: -6.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-03-19T13:56Z
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